Closing Line Value (CLV) in Sports Betting: Definition, Formula, and Real Examples

If you care about winning over the course of a season, you need to focus on closing line value. CLV tells you whether your number beat the market’s final price at kickoff or tipoff. Do that consistently and you are making strong decisions, even on nights when the ball does not bounce your way.

What Is Closing Line Value in Sports Betting?

Closing line value is the difference between the price you locked in and the closing line at a reputable sportsbook. Positive CLV means your ticket would be worth more than the same ticket bought right before the game. Negative CLV means you paid a worse price than the market offered at the close.You can measure CLV in cents for moneylines, in points for spreads and totals, or in implied probability. Any of those are valid. What matters is the habit of beating the final number more often than you miss it.

How To Calculate CLV Step by Step

Moneyline example

1. You bet the Dolphins +120 in the morning.
2. The game closes at Dolphins +105.
3. CLV equals the improvement you captured, which is +15 cents. Positive CLV.

If you prefer implied probability, convert both prices. +120 is 45.45 percent. +105 is 48.78 percent. Your ticket locked a better price than the close, which is exactly what you want.

Spread or total example

1. You bet Chiefs -2.5 at -110.
2. The market closes Chiefs -3.5 at -110.
3. CLV equals one full point on the spread. Positive CLV.

Reverse the numbers and the story flips. If you grabbed -3.5 and the game closed -2.5, you gave up value. Negative CLV.

Real Closing Line Value Examples From Live Slates

NFL moneyline

• Morning price: Jaguars +135
• Closing price: Jaguars +120
• Result: Jaguars lose
• CLV: +15 cents
• Takeaway: You lost the game, yet you still beat the market. Over hundreds of bets, grabbing +135 instead of +120 adds real units.

NBA total

• Morning price: Over 227.5 at -110
• Closing price: Over 229.5 at -110
• Result: Final score totals 226
• CLV: +2 points
• Takeaway: Negative outcome, positive decision quality. Two points of CLV on totals is meaningful across a season.

NHL puck line

• Morning price: Canucks -1.5 at +155
• Closing price: -1.5 at +145
• Result: Canucks win by two
• CLV: +10 cents
• Takeaway: You beat the close and won. This is the ideal pairing, but the process matters even when the box score disagrees.

Why Closing Line Value Predicts Long Term Edge

Sportsbooks post opening numbers, then the market reacts as information and money hit the board. By the time a game starts, the closing line reflects far more input than the opener did. If your tickets regularly beat that final number, you are aligning with the sharper half of the market. Variance will swing single results, yet CLV stacks quiet advantages that show up in units over time. Two more reasons CLV matters:

• Price is your lever. You control where and when you bet, not who scores a late touchdown.
• CLV survives small samples. Win rate can wobble week to week. CLV tells you whether your decisions are pointed in the right direction.

How Degenerate Gamblers Tracks CLV and Results

We track results by league with the same fields every time. You will see Date, Pick, Line Taken, Playable To, Result, Units, and a CLV view. Weekly rollups keep the noise down and show trend. We sell information, not bets, so we are explicit about pass days and late injury notes that move numbers.Subscribers receive three lenses inside one email. The AI model view, Antony’s card, and Chris’s card appear together so you can decide which angle fits your plan for the day. Our house style always includes a playable to price. If the market runs past that price, we recommend skipping or scaling down. That discipline protects bankrolls and keeps CLV on track.

How To Improve Your CLV With Simple Habits

• Respect your playable to price. A good number can become a bad bet when the market moves. If you miss the mark, pass or reduce. That restraint is a competitive advantage.
• Shop lines without juggling ten apps. Two or three regulated books will capture most of the benefit. Look for small price gaps that add up over time.
• Time your entries. Injury reports, starting goalies, travel spots, and weather can move numbers. If a game tends to shape up late, wait. If an angle will draw money through the day, get in early.
• Avoid chasing steam blindly. Not every move is smart money. Your goal is to buy quality prices, not to tail every blip on a screen.
• Stay steady on unit size. Spiking your stake because you feel overdue puts you at the worst possible price and destroys CLV gains from the rest of the week.

Common CLV Mistakes Bettors Make

• Betting late at bad prices. If your routine pushes you into the market a few minutes before kickoff every time, you will often buy the worst of it. Build a schedule that fits your life and the leagues you play.
• Using parlays to hide price problems. Parlays multiply edges and mistakes. If you are regularly taking numbers past playable to inside parlays, your CLV will slip without you noticing.
• Ignoring context. A number can look familiar and still be wrong if a key injury is unresolved, a team is on a tough travel spot, or the weather will change pace. Good CLV starts with good context.
• Letting emotion lead. After a bad beat, many bettors grab the next line that looks good. Breathe, check the price against your playable to range, then decide.

Frequently Asked Questions About Closing Line Value

Does positive CLV guarantee profit?

No. CLV is a quality signal, not a promise. You can beat the close and still lose on any given night. Over time, positive CLV supports better unit outcomes.

What counts as good CLV?

For moneylines, beating the close by ten to twenty cents is meaningful. For spreads and totals, a half point helps, a full point is strong. The target varies by sport and market.

Do you publish CLV on your Results page?

Yes. We track line taken and show a CLV view alongside units and outcomes. That way you can judge decision quality, not only the final score.

How can I track CLV myself?

Record the book, the time you bet, the line or price you took, and the closing number from a reputable book. Compare the two for each bet, then review the trend weekly.

Closing Line Value and Responsible Betting

CLV is a tool that rewards patience and price discipline. It pairs naturally with responsible betting habits. Use a fixed unit size, bet within your limits, and accept pass days when the number is gone. Our content is information, not a guarantee of profit. Age 18 plus only.

Ready To Put Price Discipline To Work?

If you want sports betting picks that talk about price and explain the why, you are in the right place. Our emails include confidence ratings, projected edge, a playable to price, and plain language notes. Subscribers see the AI model view alongside Antony’s and Chris’s cards, then choose how to play. Check today’s plans and review our results to see whether our calm approach fits the way you want to bet.